Reumatología Clínica (English Edition) Reumatología Clínica (English Edition)
Original Article
Osteonecrosis in Individuals With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Predictive Model
Osteonecrosis en individuos con lupus eritematoso sistémico: un modelo predictivo
Jennifer Mendoza-Alonzoa,, , José Zayas-Castroa, Karina Soto-Sandovalb
a Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, Tampa, FL 33620, USA
b Departamento de Gobierno y Empresa, Universidad de Los Lagos, Campus Puerto Montt, Chinquihue km 6, Chile
Received 05 January 2018, Accepted 03 May 2018
Abstract
Objective

This work attempts to provide a model to predict the development of osteonecrosis (ON) in individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) using pharmacological, demographic, and psychoactive factors.

Method

A review of the literature was conducted to construct a survey administered across Chile to individuals with SLE during a period of three weeks. This work used a sample size of 46 de-identified data records. Two Bayesian logistic regression models were created, with non-informative prior and informative prior distributions, and a random forest model was done for comparison. All models were cross-validated.

Results

The significant variables used were mean corticosteroids per day (mg) and tobacco use. The random forest model provided good accuracy and sensitivity, but low specificity. Bayesian logistic regression with prior information increased the specificity.

Conclusions

This work determined that the use of corticosteroids and tobacco are significant variables to predict ON. Using prior information provides good accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity to the prediction. Further studies need to be conducted to validate the model using a testing set.

Resumen
Objetivo

Este trabajo busca determinar un modelo predictivo de desarrollo de osteonecrosis (ON) en individuos diagnosticados con lupus eritematoso sistémico (LES) utilizando factores farmacológicos, demográficos y psicoactivos.

Método

Se realizó una revisión bibliográfica para construir una encuesta, la cual fue administrada a individuos con LES a lo largo de Chile durante un periodo de 3 semanas. En este trabajo se utilizó una muestra de 46 registros de datos no identificados. Se desarrollaron 2 modelos de regresión logística bayesiana con información a priori no informativa e informativa, y también se desarrolló un modelo comparativo utilizando bosques aleatorios. Los modelos fueron validados usando validación cruzada.

Resultados

Se usaron las variables significativas promedio de corticosteroides por día (mg) y consumo de tabaco. Bosques aleatorios provee una precisión y sensibilidad alta, pero una baja especificidad. La regresión logística bayesiana con información a priori incrementó el valor de la especificidad.

Conclusiones

Este trabajo ha determinado que el uso de corticosteroides y tabaco son variables significativas para predecir ON. Usando información a priori arroja buenos resultados en precisión, especificidad y sensibilidad en la predicción. Se requieren realizar más estudios aumentando el tamaño de la muestra para validar el modelo usando un conjunto de prueba.

Keywords
Osteonecrosis, Systemic lupus erythematosus, Bayesian model
Palabras clave
Osteonecrosis, Lupus eritematoso sistémico, Modelo bayesiano

Article

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